Predicting Champions winner is a tough call

EXPECTATIONS are on the rise with the ICC Champions Trophy cricket tournament about to start in South Africa.

On Cricinfo website this week, South Africa’s AB de Villiers made the point that the Proteas are keen to prove they are the best ODI side in the world and this justifies their present number one ranking.

India, who play Sri Lanka and New Zealand in a one day triangular in Sri Lanka this weekend, could very well take over the number one ranking if they win all their games.

A lot is at stake right now and there is not much to choose between the top teams. It could be one of the most wide open ICC tournaments of recent times.

A few teams are also playing cricket on the eve of this tournament, while others have had time off. Who will or will not benefit from their present situation?

For the record it is worth looking at South Africa’s record in ICC tournaments.

Sadly, our record has been below expectations, having only emerged triumphant in the inaugural Champions Trophy in 1998.

We have reached the semi-finals of the competition each time except in 2004, appeared three times in the final four of the World Cup, qualified for the semis of the ICC World Twenty20 this year and were knocked out in the Super Six round of the same tournament at home in 2007. No wonder the choker’s tag surfaces when it comes to the big time and whether it is an apt description or reason for our failures is debatable.

Nevertheless it still hangs around and only winning will rid South African cricket of this irritating and embarrassing tag. It would be foolish to keep betting against South Africa winning for surely our time will come. In this do-or-die competition, form and confidence will be vital.

This brings into consideration my point about form and confidence. Will South Africa benefit from not having played for four months? Could this be the catalyst for a runaway Champions Trophy win?

As I mentioned, Sri Lanka and New Zealand will have had plenty of cricket but playing all that cricket in sub-continent conditions still requires getting used to South African conditions.

India will have some good competitive cricket under their belt, but may well be a little rusty as could South Africa when it comes to game time.

Australia and England have also played plenty of cricket and they may be feeling fatigued by the time the tournament starts here on September 22.

They too need to adjust to South African conditions but this should be easier for them.

The West Indies it seems will be sending out their second XI which will be a great shame so one can’t seriously expect much from them.

Pakistan, the unpredictable dark horses of any tournament have also not played for a while. Form does not seem to worry them much as they find a way to win when it matters most.

It’s potentially anybody’s tournament, but one thing I would be comfortable with, is a little more tough cricket under the belt before things start.

India may be in a good position in this regard. Perhaps our long lay-off will mean greater intensity, energy and a will to win. The other teams who played plenty of cricket of late may be in the groove and battle-hardened. It’s a tough call.